Senate / NebraskaNebraska Senate 2026 · seat held by Republicans (incumbent running)
Pete Ricketts is a slight favorite to win Nebraska
Dan Osborn (I)47%Independent
Pete Ricketts53%Republican · incumbent
Forecast marginR+0.380%: R+8.0 to I+8.0
Tipping point–chance it decides control
Cook ratingLikely ROct 20
2024 presidentR+20.5nation R+1.5
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Independent margin across simulationsDan Osborn (I) wins in 47% of simulations (about 1 in 2 for the underdog). Median margin Even.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Independent races have no partisan baseline, so the forecast leans on polling, with 3 points of extra uncertainty for how independents perform against their polls.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Fundraising
From candidate reports through 2026-07-30 (COH); Q3 not foundDan Osborn (I)–cash on hand
Pete Ricketts$11.0Mraised this cycle · $6.0M on hand
Through 2026-07-30 (COH); Q3 not found. Source
Model vs. prediction market
KalshiThis model47%independent wins
Kalshi28%implied, Oct 27
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon | Oct 23 | 407 LV | R+0.2 | D+0.4 | R+0.6 | 0.51 |
| GBAO D internal | Oct 22 | 800 LV | I+1.0 | D+0.3 | R+1.2 | 0.29 |
| Impact Research D internal | Oct 20 | 600 LV | R+2.0 | D+0.9 | R+4.9 | 0.25 |
| Concord D internal | Oct 18 | 500 LV | I+7.0 | D+5.6 | I+0.1 | 0.16 |
| NPA R internal | Oct 18 | 598 LV | R+3.0 | R+0.9 | R+0.1 | 0.25 |
| NPA | Oct 5 | 800 LV | R+3.0 | R+0.9 | R+2.1 | 0.25 |
| YouGov | Oct 3 | 1,809 LV | I+1.0 | D+0.7 | I+0.3 | 1.46 |
| co/efficient | Sep 30 | 1,113 LV | R+5.0 | R+4.6 | R+0.8 | 0.90 |
| SurveyUSA | Sep 13 | 503 LV | I+4.0 | D+0.6 | I+3.8 | 0.55 |
| GBAO D internal | Sep 8 | 800 LV | I+1.0 | D+0.3 | R+1.2 | 0.11 |