Senate / MinnesotaMinnesota Senate 2026 · seat held by Democrats (open seat)
Peggy Flanagan is favored to win Minnesota
Peggy Flanagan85%Democrat
Michele Tafoya15%Republican
Forecast marginD+5.680%: R+2.0 to D+13.0
Tipping point6.0%chance it decides control
Cook ratingLean DOct 20
2024 presidentD+4.2nation R+1.5
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsPeggy Flanagan wins in 85% of simulations (about 1 in 6 for the underdog). Median margin D+6.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+14.4. Minnesota voted D+4.2 for president in 2024, 5.7 points more Democratic than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7).
Polls D+4.2. 15 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 86% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Model vs. prediction market
KalshiThis model85%Democrat wins
Kalshi85%implied, Oct 27
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen | Oct 21 | 1,182 LV | D+3.0 | R+1.0 | D+4.1 | 0.79 |
| Trafalgar | Oct 15 | 1,079 LV | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | D+4.6 | 0.88 |
| SurveyUSA | Oct 12 | 718 LV | D+3.0 | D+0.6 | D+2.7 | 0.71 |
| Morning Consult D internal | Oct 7 | 1,000 RV | D+4.0 | R+1.4 | D+4.6 | 0.50 |
| Mason-Dixon | Oct 7 | 800 LV | D+4.0 | R+1.9 | D+6.2 | 0.75 |
| Rasmussen | Oct 7 | 856 LV | D+3.0 | R+1.0 | D+4.1 | 0.26 |
| GQR D internal | Oct 4 | 800 LV | D+9.0 | D+0.1 | D+6.9 | 0.31 |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 30 | 622 LV | D+2.0 | D+0.2 | D+2.3 | 0.55 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 29 | 1,200 LV | D+1.0 | R+1.2 | D+2.3 | 0.87 |
| co/efficient | Sep 15 | 833 LV | D+1.0 | R+4.6 | D+5.7 | 0.79 |
| SurveyUSA | Sep 14 | 654 LV | Even | D+0.6 | R+0.6 | 0.27 |
| Quantus | Sep 10 | 720 LV | D+4.0 | R+3.0 | D+7.2 | 0.59 |
| TIPP Insights R internal | Sep 2 | 1,201 LV | D+2.0 | D+1.1 | D+3.2 | 0.49 |
| Deep Root Analytics R internal | Aug 18 | 597 RV | D+5.0 | D+0.9 | D+6.9 | 0.29 |
| SurveyUSA | Aug 17 | 661 LV | D+5.0 | D+0.6 | D+5.0 | 0.27 |