2026 Senate forecast · 35 seats on the ballot
Democrats need to gain four seats. Six races are within three points.
Chance of winning the Senate
68%Democrats win control
30%Republicans keep control
3%Independents decide
Median outcome: 52 Democratic seats. In 80% of simulations Democrats win 47 to 56; control takes 51, since a 50–50 Senate goes to Republicans through the vice president.
Democratic seats across 20,000 simulations
Democrats hold 34 seats that aren't up this year, including two independents who caucus with them. To control the chamber they need 51, so 17 of the 31 races with a Democratic nominee. Independent candidates in Nebraska, Idaho, South Dakota and Montana aren't assigned to either party.
How the odds have changed
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
Rewind the forecast
Slide back to any day since JulyForecast as ofToday (Oct 27)
Senate68%D control · median 52 seats
House91%D control · median 235 seats
Generic ballotD+8.7677 polls in the model
Jul 1Today
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The path to 51
Click any raceModel vs. prediction markets
Kalshi prices, Oct 27. Click a row.Every race
Closest first| State | Candidates | Poll avg. | Fundamentals | Forecast | Chance of winning | Tipping pt. | Cook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KansasFlip | Adam Hamilton Roger Marshall | D+0.8 | R+5.3 | D+0.1 | 50% | 10.1% | Toss-up |
| IowaFlip | Josh Turek Ashley Hinson | D+0.4 | R+3.0 | D+0.1 | 50% | 10.4% | Toss-up |
| Nebraska | Dan Osborn (I) Pete Ricketts | R+0.3 | n/a | R+0.3 | 53% | – | Likely R |
| TexasFlip | James Talarico Ken Paxton | D+2.4 | R+3.5 | D+2.0 | 65% | 9.4% | Toss-up |
| AlaskaFlip | Mary Peltola Dan Sullivan | D+2.9 | R+5.2 | D+2.0 | 65% | 12.1% | Toss-up |
| South Carolina | Annie Andrews Darline Graham | R+1.5 | R+7.6 | R+2.4 | 67% | 5.8% | Lean R |
| MaineFlip | Troy Jackson Susan Collins | D+2.7 | D+7.3 | D+3.0 | 72% | 10.0% | Toss-up |
| Ohio specialFlip | Sherrod Brown Jon Husted | D+3.7 | R+3.5 | D+3.1 | 72% | 12.7% | Toss-up |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed Mike Rogers | D+3.0 | D+8.8 | D+3.5 | 74% | 11.6% | Toss-up |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan Michele Tafoya | D+4.2 | D+14.4 | D+5.6 | 85% | 6.0% | Lean D |
| Mississippi | Scott Colom Cindy Hyde-Smith | R+6.1 | R+10.5 | R+7.5 | 89% | 1.8% | Likely R |
| Florida special | Angie Nixon Ashley Moody | R+6.8 | R+5.4 | R+6.7 | 89% | 1.3% | Likely R |
| Louisiana | Jamie Davis Julia Letlow | R+5.2 | R+11.8 | R+9.4 | 91% | 1.2% | Solid R |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas John E. Sununu | D+6.9 | D+13.0 | D+7.6 | 91% | 3.5% | Lean D |
| South Dakota | Brian Bengs (I) Mike Rounds | R+9.9 | n/a | R+9.9 | 94% | – | Solid R |
| Idaho | Todd Achilles (I) Jim Risch | R+11.6 | n/a | R+11.6 | 95% | – | Solid R |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff Mike Collins | D+10.1 | D+9.5 | D+10.1 | 96% | 1.4% | Likely D |
| North CarolinaFlip | Roy Cooper Michael Whatley | D+10.9 | D+7.0 | D+10.4 | 97% | 0.9% | Likely D |
| Arkansas | Hallie Shoffner Tom Cotton | R+7.5 | R+22.9 | R+11.2 | 97% | 0.3% | Solid R |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker Justin Murphy | none | D+17.3 | D+17.3 | 99% | 0.6% | Solid D |
| Montana | Seth Bodnar (I) Kurt Alme | R+15.8 | n/a | R+15.8 | 99% | – | Solid R |
| Kentucky | Charles Booker Andy Barr | R+11.7 | R+20.4 | R+17.3 | 99% | 0.1% | Solid R |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján Larry Marker | D+17.6 | D+14.9 | D+16.6 | 99% | 0.4% | Solid D |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper Mark Baisley | none | D+20.1 | D+20.1 | 99% | 0.2% | Solid D |
| Illinois | Juliana Stratton Don Tracy | D+14.7 | D+21.1 | D+17.7 | 99% | 0.2% | Solid D |
| Virginia | Mark Warner Bert Mizusawa | D+19.4 | D+18.0 | D+18.9 | >99% | 0.1% | Solid D |
| Alabama | Everett Wess Barry Moore | R+20.6 | R+20.3 | R+20.5 | >99% | 0.0% | Solid R |
| Tennessee | Marquita Bradshaw Bill Hagerty | R+22.2 | R+22.4 | R+22.2 | >99% | 0.0% | Solid R |
| Delaware | Chris Coons Michael Katz | none | D+26.9 | D+26.9 | >99% | 0.0% | Solid D |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley David Brock Smith | none | D+26.3 | D+26.3 | >99% | 0.0% | Solid D |
| Oklahoma | N'Kiyla J. Thomas Kevin Hern | R+30.8 | R+24.1 | R+27.1 | >99% | 0.0% | Solid R |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed Raymond McKay | D+29.9 | D+31.2 | D+30.2 | >99% | 0.0% | Solid D |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey John Deaton | D+28.4 | D+36.2 | D+30.0 | >99% | 0.0% | Solid D |
| West Virginia | Rachel Fetty Anderson Shelley Moore Capito | none | R+34.9 | R+34.9 | >99% | 0.0% | Solid R |
| Wyoming | James Byrd Harriet Hageman | none | R+35.6 | R+35.6 | >99% | 0.0% | Solid R |