Katie Hobbs is heavily favored to win Arizona
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsKatie Hobbs wins in 93% of simulations (about 1 in 15 for the underdog). Median margin D+9.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+11.6. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) and 10 points for the incumbent with the eight published ratings.
Polls D+8.4. 11 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 89% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse | Oct 20 | 550 LV | D+6.0 | R+1.0 | D+7.0 | 0.55 |
| Equis Research | Oct 9 | 1,214 RV | D+6.0 | R+0.4 | D+7.4 | 0.94 |
| BSP Research | Sep 4 | – LV | D+13.0 | D+1.7 | D+13.9 | 0.67 |
| NextGen Polling | Aug 19 | 1,627 RV | D+1.0 | R+1.6 | D+3.6 | 1.19 |
| HighGround | Aug 18 | 400 LV | D+16.0 | D+2.5 | D+16.0 | 0.49 |
| Quantus Insights | Aug 17 | 780 LV | D+6.0 | R+0.7 | D+7.1 | 0.72 |
| Kreate Strategies R internal | Aug 16 | 900 LV | D+5.0 | D+0.1 | D+7.6 | 0.42 |
| Stealth Analytics | Aug 13 | 530 LV | D+5.0 | R+0.7 | D+6.6 | 0.61 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Aug 13 | 923 LV | D+13.0 | D+0.4 | D+14.8 | 0.87 |
| The Tarrance Group | Jul 30 | 600 LV | D+4.0 | R+1.1 | D+5.1 | 0.57 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | Jul 28 | 913 LV | D+8.0 | R+0.4 | D+8.4 | 0.78 |