Ed Markey is heavily favored to win Massachusetts
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsEd Markey wins in >99% of simulations (about 1 in 10000 for the underdog). Median margin D+30.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+36.2. Massachusetts voted D+25.2 for president in 2024, 26.7 points more Democratic than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Ed Markey's incumbency is worth 0.8 points.
Polls D+28.4. 8 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 79% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk | Oct 18 | 500 LV | D+28.0 | D+0.6 | D+28.9 | 0.81 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | Oct 12 | 800 RV | D+26.0 | D+0.8 | D+30.7 | 0.83 |
| MassINC Polling Group/CommonWealth Beacon | Sep 22 | 800 LV | D+26.0 | D+1.0 | D+31.3 | 0.86 |
| UNH | Sep 21 | 564 LV | D+23.0 | R+2.3 | D+29.2 | 0.88 |
| UNH | Aug 24 | 881 LV | D+19.0 | R+2.3 | D+25.6 | 0.48 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov/WCVB | Aug 12 | 800 RV | D+21.0 | R+0.4 | D+26.2 | 0.82 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23 | 623 LV | D+16.0 | R+1.9 | D+20.4 | 0.67 |
| Suffolk | Jun 12 | 500 RV | D+25.0 | D+0.6 | D+28.7 | 0.34 |