Amy Acton is slightly favored to win Ohio
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsAmy Acton wins in 73% of simulations (about 1 in 4 for the underdog). Median margin D+3.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+3.9. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) with the eight published ratings.
Polls D+3.3. 18 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 95% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | Oct 23 | 508 LV | R+2.0 | R+1.1 | R+1.0 | 0.61 |
| VoteHub/Verasight | Oct 20 | 531 LV | D+0.8 | R+0.2 | D+1.0 | 0.55 |
| ActiVote | Oct 19 | 400 LV | R+2.8 | R+0.6 | R+2.2 | 0.27 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Oct 19 | 1,592 LV | D+2.0 | D+0.4 | D+1.6 | 1.05 |
| Marist University | Oct 18 | 1,176 LV | D+7.0 | 0.0 | D+7.3 | 0.92 |
| New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group | Oct 13 | 959 LV | D+5.0 | D+0.5 | D+4.7 | 0.82 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | Oct 9 | 1,000 LV | D+6.0 | D+0.7 | D+5.5 | 0.83 |
| co/efficient | Oct 6 | 925 LV | R+2.0 | R+4.6 | D+2.3 | 0.83 |
| CNN/SSRS | Oct 5 | 760 LV | D+8.0 | D+1.2 | D+7.2 | 1.02 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 1 | 616 LV | D+4.0 | R+1.7 | D+5.8 | 0.61 |
| Marist University | Sep 27 | 1,298 RV | D+6.0 | 0.0 | D+6.9 | 0.39 |
| Suffolk University | Sep 27 | 500 LV | D+9.0 | D+2.4 | D+7.2 | 0.54 |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 27 | 680 LV | R+1.1 | D+0.2 | R+1.3 | 0.51 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Aug 13 | 800 LV | D+1.0 | R+0.3 | D+1.4 | 0.73 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Aug 10 | 1,008 RV | R+2.0 | D+0.4 | R+1.7 | 0.33 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 28 | 601 LV | Even | R+1.7 | D+1.7 | 0.24 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Jun 16 | 800 LV | D+3.0 | D+0.1 | D+3.1 | 0.74 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Jun 1 | 1,015 RV | D+1.0 | D+0.4 | D+1.3 | 0.33 |