Kelly Ayotte is heavily favored to win New Hampshire
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsCinde Warmington wins in 6% of simulations (about 1 in 17 for the underdog). Median margin R+9.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+4.1. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) and 10 points for the incumbent with the eight published ratings.
Polls R+9.5. 8 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 89% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm | Oct 20 | 1,672 LV | R+8.0 | D+0.6 | R+9.0 | 1.11 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22 | 613 LV | R+11.0 | R+1.7 | R+9.8 | 0.61 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 1,418 LV | R+4.0 | R+1.9 | R+2.4 | 1.04 |
| co/efficient | Sep 11 | 958 LV | R+21.0 | R+4.6 | R+18.3 | 0.86 |
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 24 | 1,878 LV | R+10.0 | R+1.9 | R+9.1 | 0.48 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | Aug 18 | 1,411 LV | R+11.0 | R+0.6 | R+11.7 | 1.06 |
| Saint Anselm | Jun 25 | 1,614 RV | R+8.0 | D+0.6 | R+9.3 | 0.46 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23 | – RV | R+5.0 | R+1.9 | R+3.2 | 0.26 |