Byron Donalds is favored to win Florida
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsDavid Jolly wins in 18% of simulations (about 1 in 6 for the underdog). Median margin R+5.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+0.8. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) with the eight published ratings.
Polls R+5.2. 16 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 94% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | Oct 23 | 515 LV | R+6.0 | R+1.1 | R+5.1 | 0.61 |
| co/efficient | Oct 20 | 1,014 LV | R+9.0 | R+4.6 | R+5.3 | 0.87 |
| ActiVote | Oct 19 | 400 LV | R+3.4 | R+0.6 | R+2.8 | 0.27 |
| University of North Florida | Oct 19 | 1,378 LV | R+2.0 | D+0.6 | R+2.6 | 0.99 |
| YouGov | Oct 15 | 825 RV | R+8.0 | D+0.7 | R+8.4 | 0.97 |
| Change Research D internal | Oct 10 | 920 LV | Even | D+1.6 | R+3.6 | 0.31 |
| MDW Communications | Oct 10 | 2,351 LV | R+2.0 | D+0.7 | R+2.9 | 1.29 |
| St. Pete Polls | Oct 7 | 836 LV | Even | D+3.1 | R+3.1 | 0.77 |
| Targoz Market Research | Oct 4 | 857 LV | R+10.0 | R+1.2 | R+9.1 | 0.76 |
| Targoz Market Research | Oct 4 | 1,200 RV | R+9.0 | R+1.2 | R+8.1 | 0.39 |
| Change Research | Sep 27 | 1,063 LV | D+2.0 | D+1.6 | D+0.5 | 0.27 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Sep 21 | 830 LV | R+12.0 | R+1.9 | R+11.0 | 0.77 |
| St. Pete Polls | Sep 17 | 913 LV | R+0.1 | D+3.1 | R+3.2 | 0.33 |
| Change Research | Sep 9 | 1,107 LV | D+3.0 | D+1.6 | D+1.6 | 0.28 |
| Targoz Market Research | Jul 26 | 1,026 RV | R+7.0 | R+1.2 | R+6.2 | 0.36 |
| University of North Florida | Jul 17 | 848 LV | R+5.0 | D+0.6 | R+6.2 | 0.32 |