William Lawrence82%Democrat
Tom Barrett18%Republican · incumbent
Median marginD+5.080%: R+2.0 to D+13.0
Cook PVIEVEN2026 lines
Tipping point2.3%decides the majority
District pollsD+4.62 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 14 | 314 LV | 53–45 D+8.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | Aug 13 | 500 LV | 49–47 D+2.0 |