House / CA-48California's 48th district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans · new 2026 map
Marni von Wilpert is heavily favored in CA-48
Marni von Wilpert94%Democrat
Jim Desmond6%Republican
Median marginD+8.080%: D+2.0 to D+15.0
Cook PVID+22026 lines
Tipping point1.4%decides the majority
District pollsD+4.44 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group | Oct 20 | 410 LV | 47–44 D+3.0 |
| SurveyUSA | Oct 7 | 518 LV | 47–38 D+9.0 |
| SurveyUSA | Sep 1 | 522 LV | 45–42 D+3.0 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | Jul 14 | 500 LV | 48–46 D+2.0 |