House / NH-1New Hampshire's 1st district 2026 · open seat, held by Democrats
Stefany Shaheen is heavily favored in NH-1
Stefany Shaheen93%Democrat
Anthony DiLorenzo7%Republican
Median marginD+8.080%: D+1.0 to D+15.0
Cook PVID+22026 lines
Tipping point1.6%decides the majority
District pollsD+4.02 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm | Oct 20 | 861 LV | 46–42 D+4.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 711 LV | 46–42 D+4.0 |