House / NM-3New Mexico's 3rd district 2026 · held by Democrats
Teresa Leger Fernández is heavily favored in NM-3
Teresa Leger Fernández99%Democrat · incumbent
Martin Zamora1%Republican
Median marginD+17.080%: D+9.0 to D+24.0
Cook PVID+32026 lines
Tipping point0.2%decides the majority
District pollsD+14.01 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling | Oct 9 | 362 LV | 53–39 D+14.0 |