House / MI-4Michigan's 4th district 2026 · held by Republicans
Bill Huizenga is a slight favorite in MI-4
Sean McCann40%Democrat
Bill Huizenga60%Republican · incumbent
Median marginR+1.080%: R+9.0 to D+6.0
Cook PVIR+32026 lines
Tipping point0.9%decides the majority
District pollsR+2.82 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| RedBox Research | Oct 23 | 787 LV | 44–47 R+3.0 |
| GBAO (D) | Sep 16 | 500 LV | 47–46 D+1.0 |