House / MN-2Minnesota's 2nd district 2026 · open seat, held by Democrats
Democrat is heavily favored in MN-2
Democrat98%Democrat
Republican2%Republican
Median marginD+15.080%: D+6.0 to D+23.0
Cook PVID+32026 lines
Tipping point0.3%decides the majority
District pollsNonefundamentals only
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| No public district polls found. | |||