House / AZ-1Arizona's 1st district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans
Amish Shah is favored in AZ-1
Amish Shah81%Democrat
Jay Feely19%Republican
Median marginD+5.080%: R+2.0 to D+12.0
Cook PVIR+12026 lines
Tipping point2.4%decides the majority
District pollsD+2.52 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| RedBox Research (D) | Oct 23 | 851 LV | 49–43 D+6.0 |
| FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs | Oct 1 | 400 LV | 44–42 D+2.0 |