House / MT-1Montana's 1st district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans
Aaron Flint is a slight favorite in MT-1
Sam Forstag48%Democrat
Aaron Flint52%Republican
Median marginEven80%: R+7.0 to D+7.0
Cook PVIR+52026 lines
Tipping point1.4%decides the majority
District pollsD+0.56 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Oct 14 | 541 LV | 48–45 D+3.0 |
| Emerson College | Oct 14 | 329 LV | 50–46 D+4.0 |
| American Pulse | Sep 24 | 314 LV | 45–46 R+1.0 |
| Impact Research (D) | Sep 23 | 500 LV | 47–44 D+3.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Sep 10 | 536 RV | 45–43 D+2.0 |
| Rutgers Eagleton/Montana Free Press | Sep 7 | 375 RV | 41–42 R+1.0 |