House / IA-1Iowa's 1st district 2026 · held by Republicans
Christina Bohannan is slightly favored in IA-1
Christina Bohannan72%Democrat
Mariannette Miller-Meeks28%Republican · incumbent
Median marginD+3.080%: R+4.0 to D+10.0
Cook PVIR+42026 lines
Tipping point2.5%decides the majority
District pollsD+9.52 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wavefield Research | Oct 2 | 297 LV | 45–29 D+16.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center | Jul 16 | 705 LV | 40–35 D+5.0 |