House / TX-34Texas's 34th district 2026 · held by Democrats · new 2026 map
Vicente Gonzalez is favored in TX-34
Vicente Gonzalez80%Democrat · incumbent
Eric Flores20%Republican
Median marginD+4.080%: R+3.0 to D+11.0
Cook PVIR+32026 lines
Tipping point2.5%decides the majority
District pollsD+4.43 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Post/Schar School | Oct 19 | 626 LV | 50–43 D+7.0 |
| Texas Southern University | Aug 22 | 700 LV | 45–42 D+3.0 |
| Texas Southern University | Jul 30 | 700 LV | 45–42 D+3.0 |