Tom Perriello14%Democrat
John McGuire86%Republican · incumbent
Median marginR+6.080%: R+13.0 to D+1.0
Cook PVIR+62026 lines
Tipping point0.2%decides the majority
District pollsR+5.63 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Post/Schar School | Sep 28 | 600 LV | 45–51 R+6.0 |
| Expedition Strategies (D) | Sep 24 | 400 LV | 45–46 R+1.0 |
| Expedition Strategies (D) | Aug 1 | 602 LV | 44–47 R+3.0 |