House / FL-16Florida's 16th district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans · new 2026 map
Sydney Gruters is slightly favored in FL-16
Kelly Kirschner32%Democrat
Sydney Gruters68%Republican
Median marginR+3.080%: R+10.0 to D+5.0
Cook PVIR+62026 lines
Tipping point0.7%decides the majority
District pollsR+1.92 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Oct 2 | 530 RV | 39–43 R+4.0 |
| Sea Polling | Aug 29 | 400 LV | 40–39 D+1.0 |