House / PA-8Pennsylvania's 8th district 2026 · held by Republicans
Paige Cognetti is a slight favorite in PA-8
Paige Cognetti52%Democrat
Rob Bresnahan48%Republican · incumbent
Median marginEven80%: R+7.0 to D+8.0
Cook PVIR+42026 lines
Tipping point1.6%decides the majority
District pollsD+3.43 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena | Oct 22 | 400 LV | 51–46 D+5.0 |
| Emerson College | Oct 14 | 396 LV | 52–48 D+4.0 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | Jun 23 | 400 LV | 47–45 D+2.0 |