House / IA-3Iowa's 3rd district 2026 · held by Republicans
Sarah Trone Garriott is slightly favored in IA-3
Sarah Trone Garriott62%Democrat
Zach Nunn38%Republican · incumbent
Median marginD+2.080%: R+6.0 to D+10.0
Cook PVIR+22026 lines
Tipping point1.8%decides the majority
District pollsNonefundamentals only
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| No public district polls found. | |||