House / OH-15Ohio's 15th district 2026 · held by Republicans · new 2026 map
Mike Carey is slightly favored in OH-15
Don Leonard26%Democrat
Mike Carey74%Republican · incumbent
Median marginR+4.080%: R+11.0 to D+4.0
Cook PVIR+52026 lines
Tipping point0.6%decides the majority
District pollsR+4.24 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research (D) | Oct 12 | 503 LV | 48–45 D+3.0 |
| Hart Research (D) | Sep 24 | 500 LV | 46–45 D+1.0 |
| Hart Research (D) | Aug 9 | 401 LV | 37–41 R+4.0 |
| Hart Research Associates (D) | Jun 25 | 550 LV | 40–45 R+5.0 |