House / OH-9Ohio's 9th district 2026 · held by Democrats · new 2026 map
Derek Merrin is a slight favorite in OH-9
Marcy Kaptur46%Democrat · incumbent
Derek Merrin54%Republican
Median marginR+1.080%: R+9.0 to D+7.0
Cook PVIR+52026 lines
Tipping point1.3%decides the majority
District pollsR+3.01 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Analytics Department (D) | Sep 23 | 481 LV | 48–48 Even |