House / FL-13Florida's 13th district 2026 · held by Republicans · new 2026 map
Anna Paulina Luna is favored in FL-13
Leela Gray20%Democrat
Anna Paulina Luna80%Republican · incumbent
Median marginR+4.080%: R+11.0 to D+3.0
Cook PVIR+62026 lines
Tipping point0.3%decides the majority
District pollsR+4.15 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Oct 15 | 603 LV | 47–46 D+1.0 |
| Hart Research Associates (D) | Aug 27 | 500 LV | 51–46 D+5.0 |
| GQR (D) | Aug 6 | 500 LV | 44–47 R+3.0 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) | Aug 6 | 400 LV | 41–49 R+8.0 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | Jul 22 | 400 LV | 41–49 R+8.0 |