House / MI-10Michigan's 10th district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans
Mike Bouchard is a slight favorite in MI-10
Christina Hines44%Democrat
Mike Bouchard56%Republican
Median marginR+1.080%: R+8.0 to D+6.0
Cook PVIR+32026 lines
Tipping point1.2%decides the majority
District pollsR+4.52 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| RedBox Research | Oct 23 | 889 LV | 42–47 R+5.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | Aug 13 | 600 LV | 45–45 Even |