House / FL-22Florida's 22nd district 2026 · open seat, held by Democrats · new 2026 map
Casey Askar is a slight favorite in FL-22
Pia Dandiya48%Democrat
Casey Askar52%Republican
Median marginEven80%: R+8.0 to D+7.0
Cook PVIR+42026 lines
Tipping point1.4%decides the majority
District pollsR+1.92 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research (D) | Aug 31 | – LV | 46–44 D+2.0 |
| Tavern Research (D) | Aug 12 | 551 LV | 50–50 Even |