House / TX-28Texas's 28th district 2026 · held by Democrats · new 2026 map
Henry Cuellar is heavily favored in TX-28
Henry Cuellar93%Democrat · incumbent
Tano Tijerina7%Republican
Median marginD+8.080%: D+1.0 to D+15.0
Cook PVIR+32026 lines
Tipping point1.5%decides the majority
District pollsD+12.23 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC (D) | Oct 13 | 536 LV | 54–34 D+20.0 |
| Texas Southern University | Aug 22 | 600 LV | 45–34 D+11.0 |
| Texas Southern University | Jul 30 | 600 LV | 45–34 D+11.0 |