House / PA-1Pennsylvania's 1st district 2026 · held by Republicans
Bob Harvie is slightly favored in PA-1
Bob Harvie68%Democrat
Brian Fitzpatrick32%Republican · incumbent
Median marginD+2.080%: R+5.0 to D+9.0
Cook PVID+12026 lines
Tipping point2.5%decides the majority
District pollsR+2.65 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena | Oct 22 | 400 LV | 48–46 D+2.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | Oct 8 | 1,032 LV | 46–46 Even |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | Sep 14 | 400 RV | 40–49 R+9.0 |
| GQR (D) | Aug 23 | 400 LV | 48–49 R+1.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | Aug 9 | 500 LV | 43–47 R+4.0 |