House / WI-1Wisconsin's 1st district 2026 · held by Republicans
Bryan Steil is a slight favorite in WI-1
Mitchell Berman49%Democrat
Bryan Steil51%Republican · incumbent
Median marginEven80%: R+8.0 to D+7.0
Cook PVIR+22026 lines
Tipping point1.5%decides the majority
District pollsR+2.93 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research (D) | Oct 1 | 500 LV | 48–47 D+1.0 |
| DCCC (D) | Sep 23 | 495 LV | 48–48 Even |
| Impact Research (D) | Aug 9 | 400 LV | 48–49 R+1.0 |