House / TX-15Texas's 15th district 2026 · held by Republicans · new 2026 map
Monica De La Cruz is a slight favorite in TX-15
Bobby Pulido46%Democrat
Monica De La Cruz54%Republican · incumbent
Median marginEven80%: R+7.0 to D+6.0
Cook PVIR+72026 lines
Tipping point1.4%decides the majority
District pollsD+4.46 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Post/Schar School | Oct 19 | 606 LV | 47–48 R+1.0 |
| Texas Southern University | Oct 16 | – LV | 51–44 D+7.0 |
| Normington Petts (D) | Sep 28 | 400 LV | 54–41 D+13.0 |
| Texas Southern University | Aug 22 | 700 LV | 50–45 D+5.0 |
| Texas Southern University | Jul 30 | 700 LV | 50–45 D+5.0 |
| Normington Petts (D) | Jul 27 | 553 LV | 51–45 D+6.0 |