House / RI-2Rhode Island's 2nd district 2026 · held by Democrats
Seth Magaziner is heavily favored in RI-2
Seth Magaziner99%Democrat · incumbent
Vic Mellor1%Republican
Median marginD+17.080%: D+10.0 to D+25.0
Cook PVID+42026 lines
Tipping point0.1%decides the majority
District pollsD+13.01 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Embold Research | Oct 8 | 417 LV | 52–39 D+13.0 |