Cait Conley78%Democrat
Mike Lawler22%Republican · incumbent
Median marginD+4.080%: R+3.0 to D+11.0
Cook PVID+12026 lines
Tipping point2.5%decides the majority
District pollsD+0.64 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | Sep 30 | 400 LV | 47–50 R+3.0 |
| Emerson College | Sep 29 | 400 LV | 48–46 D+2.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | Jul 22 | 1,292 LV | 45–50 R+5.0 |
| FM3 Research (D) | Jul 1 | 509 LV | 51–45 D+6.0 |