House / AK-ALAlaska's at-large district 2026 · held by Republicans
Nick Begich III is heavily favored in AK-AL
Bill Hill (I)5%Democrat
Nick Begich III95%Republican · incumbent
Median marginR+9.080%: R+16.0 to R+2.0
Cook PVIR+62026 lines
Tipping point0.0%decides the majority
District pollsR+10.75 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | Oct 16 | 668 LV | 42–48 R+6.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Oct 3 | 1,512 LV | 40–50 R+10.0 |
| NYT/Siena | Oct 1 | 616 LV | 35–47 R+12.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | Sep 11 | 800 LV | 31–45 R+14.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group | Sep 6 | 820 LV | 36.6–44.2 R+7.6 |