House / TN-9Tennessee's 9th district 2026 · open seat, held by Democrats · new 2026 map
Brent Taylor is heavily favored in TN-9
Justin Pearson8%Democrat
Brent Taylor92%Republican
Median marginR+9.080%: R+17.0 to R+1.0
Cook PVIR+92026 lines
Tipping point0.2%decides the majority
District pollsR+7.01 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research Associates (D) | Sep 3 | 400 LV | 44–48 R+4.0 |