House / FL-27Florida's 27th district 2026 · held by Republicans · new 2026 map
Maria Elvira Salazar is favored in FL-27
Eliott Rodriguez22%Democrat
Maria Elvira Salazar78%Republican · incumbent
Median marginR+4.080%: R+12.0 to D+3.0
Cook PVIR+62026 lines
Tipping point0.4%decides the majority
District pollsR+3.52 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research (D) | Sep 13 | 600 LV | 46–47 R+1.0 |
| Bendixen & Amandi International (D) | Aug 30 | 600 LV | 45–45 Even |