House / CA-13California's 13th district 2026 · held by Democrats · new 2026 map
Adam Gray is heavily favored in CA-13
Adam Gray98%Democrat · incumbent
Kevin Lincoln2%Republican
Median marginD+14.080%: D+6.0 to D+22.0
Cook PVID+22026 lines
Tipping point0.4%decides the majority
District pollsNonefundamentals only
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| No public district polls found. | |||