House / ME-2Maine's 2nd district 2026 · open seat, held by Democrats
Matthew Dunlap is a slight favorite in ME-2
Matthew Dunlap55%Democrat
Paul LePage45%Republican
Median marginD+1.080%: R+6.0 to D+8.0
Cook PVIR+42026 lines
Tipping point1.7%decides the majority
District pollsD+0.66 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research (D) | Oct 14 | 500 LV | 50–46 D+4.0 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | Sep 30 | 500 LV | 50–48 D+2.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 627 LV | 51–45 D+6.0 |
| Impact Research (D) | Sep 12 | 500 LV | 49–49 Even |
| DCCC Targeting Team (D) | Aug 13 | 621 LV | 48–49 R+1.0 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | Jul 16 | 600 LV | 49–48 D+1.0 |