House / FL-9Florida's 9th district 2026 · held by Democrats · new 2026 map
Dan Green is favored in FL-9
Darren Soto21%Democrat · incumbent
Dan Green79%Republican
Median marginR+5.080%: R+12.0 to D+3.0
Cook PVIR+82026 lines
Tipping point0.4%decides the majority
District pollsR+2.72 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA Polling (D) | Oct 15 | – LV | 44–44 Even |
| SEA Polling (D) | Aug 30 | 400 RV | 41–41 Even |