Manny Rutinel78%Democrat
Gabe Evans22%Republican · incumbent
Median marginD+5.080%: R+3.0 to D+13.0
Cook PVIEVEN2026 lines
Tipping point2.2%decides the majority
District pollsD+1.01 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin and Associates (R) | Sep 17 | 400 LV | 46–48 R+2.0 |