Jonathan Nez22%Democrat
Eli Crane78%Republican · incumbent
Median marginR+4.080%: R+12.0 to D+3.0
Cook PVIR+72026 lines
Tipping point0.4%decides the majority
District pollsD+2.01 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson | Oct 14 | 345 LV | 50–48 D+2.0 |