House / OH-1Ohio's 1st district 2026 · held by Democrats · new 2026 map
Greg Landsman is favored in OH-1
Greg Landsman88%Democrat · incumbent
Eric Conroy12%Republican
Median marginD+6.080%: R+1.0 to D+13.0
Cook PVIR+12026 lines
Tipping point2.0%decides the majority
District pollsD+4.63 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | Oct 21 | 561 LV | 47–42 D+5.0 |
| Torchlight Strategies (R) | Oct 2 | 400 LV | 46–44 D+2.0 |
| Quantus Insights | Aug 24 | 509 LV | 47–43 D+4.0 |