House / KY-6Kentucky's 6th district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans
Ralph Alvarado is slightly favored in KY-6
Zach Dembo39%Democrat
Ralph Alvarado61%Republican
Median marginR+2.080%: R+8.0 to D+6.0
Cook PVIR+72026 lines
Tipping point0.9%decides the majority
District pollsD+2.07 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Oct 20 | 572 LV | 47–41 D+6.0 |
| DCCC (D) | Oct 5 | 606 LV | 46–40 D+6.0 |
| Change Research (D) | Oct 5 | 524 LV | 47–38 D+9.0 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | Oct 4 | 400 LV | 47–40 D+7.0 |
| GQR (D) | Sep 30 | 401 LV | 42–37 D+5.0 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | Aug 23 | 400 LV | 45–44 D+1.0 |
| DCCC (D) | Jul 30 | 474 V | 47–47 Even |