House / TX-23Texas's 23rd district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans · new 2026 map
Brandon Herrera is favored in TX-23
Katy Padilla Stout22%Democrat
Brandon Herrera78%Republican
Median marginR+5.080%: R+13.0 to D+3.0
Cook PVIR+72026 lines
Tipping point0.5%decides the majority
District pollsR+3.01 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normington Petts (D) | Oct 7 | 400 LV | 46–46 Even |