Bob Brooks77%Democrat
Ryan Mackenzie23%Republican · incumbent
Median marginD+4.080%: R+3.0 to D+11.0
Cook PVIR+12026 lines
Tipping point2.5%decides the majority
District pollsD+4.53 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena | Oct 22 | 400 LV | 49–44 D+5.0 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | Sep 20 | 357 RV | 45–40 D+5.0 |
| GBAO (D) | Jul 2 | 550 LV | 47–43 D+4.0 |