Zack Mullock15%Democrat
Jeff Van Drew85%Republican · incumbent
Median marginR+6.080%: R+14.0 to D+2.0
Cook PVIR+52026 lines
Tipping point0.3%decides the majority
District pollsR+13.01 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research (D) | Oct 10 | – LV | 40–50 R+10.0 |