House / PA-10Pennsylvania's 10th district 2026 · held by Republicans
Janelle Stelson is a slight favorite in PA-10
Janelle Stelson57%Democrat
Scott Perry43%Republican · incumbent
Median marginD+1.080%: R+6.0 to D+8.0
Cook PVIR+32026 lines
Tipping point1.7%decides the majority
District pollsD+2.53 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena | Oct 22 | 400 LV | 48–48 Even |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | Oct 11 | 300 LV | 49–46 D+3.0 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | Sep 20 | 390 RV | 47–44 D+3.0 |