House / MI-1Michigan's 1st district 2026 · held by Republicans

Republican is heavily favored in MI-1

Democrat1%Democrat

Republican99%Republican · incumbent

Median marginR+16.080%: R+25.0 to R+8.0

Cook PVIR+112026 lines

Tipping point0.0%decides the majority

District pollsNonefundamentals only

Range of outcomes

Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27

CookSolid R

Inside ElectionsSolid R

SabatoSolid R

Race to the WHLikely R

EconomistLikely R

Split TicketSolid R

DDHQLikely R

FiftyPlusOneSolid R

Fox NewsSolid R

Silver BulletinSolid R

Pollster	Field end	Sample	Result
No public district polls found.