House / NC-11North Carolina's 11th district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans · new 2026 map
Jamie Ager is slightly favored in NC-11
Jamie Ager68%Democrat
Jennifer Balkcom32%Republican
Median marginD+3.080%: R+5.0 to D+10.0
Cook PVIR+52026 lines
Tipping point2.2%decides the majority
District pollsD+8.12 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 14 | 388 LV | 56–43 D+13.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Sep 11 | 531 RV | 47–44 D+3.0 |