House / NC-1North Carolina's 1st district 2026 · held by Democrats · new 2026 map
Don Davis is slightly favored in NC-1
Don Davis68%Democrat · incumbent
Laurie Buckhout32%Republican
Median marginD+2.080%: R+5.0 to D+10.0
Cook PVIR+52026 lines
Tipping point2.5%decides the majority
District pollsD+5.34 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient (R) | Oct 8 | 623 LV | 42–43 R+1.0 |
| Neighborhood Research (R) | Oct 6 | 303 LV | 51–41 D+10.0 |
| GQR (D) | Oct 4 | 500 LV | 47–39 D+8.0 |
| GBAO (D) | Sep 11 | 500 LV | 50–43 D+7.0 |